Short answer: for 2027 coverage, if your household expects to earn between about $15,960 and $63,840 as a single person, or $33,000 and $132,000 as a family of four, and you do not have affordable coverage through work, Medicare or AHCCCS, you will probably qualify for help paying for a plan on HealthCare.gov.
Here is how it works, what changed for 2027, and the mistakes I see most often.
What a “subsidy” actually is
The subsidy is a premium tax credit. Instead of waiting until tax time, most people have it paid straight to their insurance company every month, which lowers what you pay. It only applies to plans bought through the marketplace, which in Arizona is HealthCare.gov.
How much you get depends on two things: the income you expect to earn in 2027, and the cost of a benchmark silver plan where you live. Two people with the same income can get different amounts if they live in different parts of the state.
The 2027 income ranges
For 2027 coverage, eligibility is based on the 2026 federal poverty guidelines. The income that counts is your expected 2027 household income (modified adjusted gross income), not what you earned last year.
| Household size | Low end (100%) | AHCCCS line for adults (138%) | Upper limit (400%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $15,960 | $22,025 | $63,840 |
| 2 | $21,640 | $29,863 | $86,560 |
| 3 | $27,320 | $37,702 | $109,280 |
| 4 | $33,000 | $45,540 | $132,000 |
If your income is below the 138% column, you will usually be pointed to AHCCCS, Arizona’s Medicaid program, instead of a marketplace subsidy. If you earn up to 250% of the poverty level, you may also qualify for lower deductibles and copays on silver plans.
What changed for 2027
- The “subsidy cliff” is back. The extra subsidies that started in 2021 ended after 2025. For 2027, if your income is even a dollar over 400% of the poverty level, there is no premium tax credit at all.
- No more repayment cap. If your income comes in higher than you estimated, you may have to pay back the full difference when you file your taxes. Getting the estimate right matters more than it used to.
- Arizona prices went up. Average marketplace premiums in Arizona are rising roughly 28% before subsidies for 2027, and Cigna is leaving the Arizona marketplace. Subsidies generally rise with prices, so your net cost may not change as much as the sticker price, but it varies by household.
Who usually does not qualify
- Adults below about 138% of the poverty level, who are usually eligible for AHCCCS instead
- People offered affordable employer coverage, even if they would rather not use it
- People eligible for Medicare
- Households over 400% of the poverty level
Mistakes I see most often
- Guessing at income. If you are self-employed or work on commission, estimate carefully and update HealthCare.gov if your income changes during the year.
- Assuming last year’s answer still applies. A raise, a new job, a baby or a move can all change what you qualify for.
- Not looking closely near the 400% line. If you are close to it, contributions to some retirement accounts or an HSA can lower the income number the marketplace uses. Ask your tax preparer what applies to you.
- Only looking at the marketplace. If you do not qualify for a subsidy, there may be private plans outside HealthCare.gov worth comparing.
When to apply
Open enrollment for 2027 runs November 1, 2026 to January 15, 2027. Choose a plan by December 15 if you want coverage to start January 1. Outside that window you generally need a qualifying life event, such as losing other coverage or moving.
Want to know what you would actually pay? I will check your numbers for free, with no obligation. Call me at 480-997-1810 or request a free quote.
Figures and dates are for 2027 coverage as of November 2026 and can change. MF Health Advisors is an independent, licensed insurance agency, not HealthCare.gov or a government agency. This is general information, not tax advice.
